Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.812368 3.294573 3.829802 4.467276 5.205204 6.031910 7.027705
2025-11-23 1.984347 2.602899 3.365021 4.370167 5.657912 7.249126 9.361165
2025-11-30 1.579245 2.274204 3.207066 4.543891 6.402572 8.886407 12.447142
2025-12-07 1.250049 1.950678 2.962720 4.519092 6.837687 10.146223 15.203248
2025-12-14 1.014752 1.699781 2.755135 4.481319 7.211620 11.334367 17.992101
2025-12-21 0.848623 1.515107 2.602920 4.482759 7.618249 12.594947 21.029136
2025-12-28 0.783687 1.480045 2.675718 4.843655 8.630561 14.906280 25.993807
2026-01-04 0.688532 1.372133 2.604005 4.941810 9.207540 16.569692 30.094011
2026-01-11 0.610353 1.279336 2.540668 5.038441 9.784559 18.289335 34.484827
2026-01-18 0.535866 1.178958 2.445088 5.056108 10.211916 19.784774 38.642717
2026-01-25 0.466266 1.075035 2.324648 5.003969 10.492996 21.035541 42.484014
2026-02-01 0.386221 0.933554 2.105168 4.717217 10.268621 21.296096 44.459819
2026-02-08 0.330869 0.838596 1.972003 4.599146 10.390125 22.283433 48.066812
2026-02-15 0.288492 0.765874 1.876013 4.548323 10.650525 23.592357 52.513213
2026-02-22 0.268359 0.743332 1.889899 4.746536 11.482008 26.188334 59.964523
2026-03-01 0.237612 0.687459 1.815640 4.726814 11.817936 27.763479 65.413025
2026-03-08 0.210183 0.634601 1.739454 4.689495 12.105874 29.264791 70.875696
2026-03-15 0.188314 0.592461 1.682979 4.691730 12.487627 31.021287 77.122246
2026-03-22 0.185056 0.603224 1.766899 5.068899 13.848251 35.208666 89.501048
2026-03-29 0.170651 0.577765 1.748557 5.171498 14.525031 37.846918 98.493070
2026-04-05 0.157646 0.553908 1.730643 5.272441 15.211351 40.587533 108.046488
2026-04-12 0.143279 0.522598 1.685928 5.290901 15.679344 42.837934 116.636480
2026-04-19 0.128366 0.486179 1.619703 5.236458 15.939339 44.587800 124.153754